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Fact: Newspapers will die in the next 10 years

Article I wrote in the madeIN magazine (Croatia).

Two years ago the world (media world) went crazy about the iPad.
Many media experts, immediately, said that the print editions of daily newspapers are dead and as the only candidate for the future and salvation of the media this experts pointed out – iPad and other tablets.

Will iPad save the newspapers? We can safely say – yes, new technological solutions will save the newspapers. From recent research about iPad users by Reynolds Journalism Institute we can say that the iPad is still, a product for yuppies and gadget lovers. The research results pointed out an iPad buyer to be – well educated man, aged between 35 and 64 and more than 40% of them bought the iPad at early sales. So, iPad did not change the world of publishing – yet, the only thing that is certain is a change and increase of Mr. Steve Jobs bank account, who once again lectured us how to attract the media to advertise your product for free and generate fame about your product that is ultimately just a gadget, a laptop without a keyboard.
While the world continues to entertain it selves with the possibilities of iPad and other platforms, which will be able to replace paper as the medium, majority of publishers have to focus on something else – definition of themselves.
Newspapers have to focus on a content.
The funniest thing is that I’m talking about pure journalism and nothing else. I’m talking about basics. What happened to the basics of journalism? Things are so much simpler then they look.
My advice – back to basics.
Yes, in 10 years newspapers will be dead, but you need to find the way how to prolong your life, and be ready for the future. Today some experts are saying that the iPad is future. It’s to expensive to be a future, some other media in the next years will surprise us with the new platform (Sony, Samsung and some other companies are already working on that). You need to achieve stability in production to sail painlessly through the difficult waters of publishing at the beginning of the second decade of 21st century.

madeIN magazine
Dominique Strauss-Kahn may return to France as favourite to win the 2012 presidential elections…k. Photograph: Jessica Rinaldi/AFP/Getty Images

Tough economic lessons for newspapers
John Paton (named best publisher of the 2009th year in the United States of America) and Jeff Jarvis ( What would Google do?) knows a lot about publishing in the future.
This is what they think:


RULES FOR BUSINESS MODELS
* Tradition is not a business model. The past is no longer a reliable guide to future success.
* “Should” is not a business model. You can say that people “should” pay for your product but they will only if they find value in it.
* “I want to” is not a business model. My entrepreneurial students often start with what they want to do. I tell them, no one — except possibly their mothers — gives a damn what they *want* to do.
* Virtue is not a business model. Just because you do good does not mean you deserve to be paid for it.
* Business models are not made of entitlements and emotions. They are made of hard economics. Money has no heart.
* Begging is not a business model. It’s lazy to think that foundations and contributions can solve news’ problems. There isn’t enough money there. (Foundation friend to provide figures here.)
* There is no free lunch. Government money comes with strings.
* No one cares what you spent. Arguing that news costs a lot is irrelevant to the market.
* The only thing that matters to the market is value. What is your service worth to the public?
* Value is determined by need. What problem do you solve?
* Disruption is the law of the jungle and the internet. If someone can do what you do cheaper, better, faster, they will.
* Disrupt thyself. So find your weak underbelly before someone else discovers it. Or find someone else’s.
* The bottom line matters more than the top line. Plan for profitability over revenue, sustainability over size.
REALITY CHECKS FOR NEWSPAPERS
* Circulation will continue to decline. There can be no doubt.
* Cutting costs will reduce product quality and value, which will further reduce circulation, which will further reduce ad revenue. A vicious, unstoppable cycle.
* Low-cost competitors and abundance will continue to reduce the price of advertising.
* Local retail will continue to consolidate, further reducing ad revenue. Blame Amazon.
* Classified categories—real estate, auto, jobs, merchandise—will continue to become more self-sufficient. They will need market mediators less and less.
* There’s a cliff coming: the end of a critical-mass of circulation needed to maintain inserts. That will have a big impact on newspapers’ P&Ls and will take away a primary justification for still printing and distributing paper.
* Some readers are not worth saving. One newspaper killed its stock tables, saved $1 million, and lost 12 subs. That means it had been paying $83k/year to maintain those readers. In creating business plans, the net future value of readers should be calculated and maximized.
* Once fixed costs are sliced to the bone, they will rise again. Cutting alone does not a business strategy make.
* “The newspaper model is broken and can’t be fixed.” Says John Paton.
DIGITAL RULES
* Scaling local sales is the key challenge. Google will pick low-hanging fruit from the 6 million businesses that have claimed their Places pages. Facebook’s fruit will be businesses that use its free Deals. Each will use distant sales. Groupon and Patch will attack the challenge with the brute force of local sales staff.
* There will always be new competitors. For content, attention, advertising, and advertising sales.
* You no longer control the market. You are a member of an ecosystem. Play well with others.
* Abundance will drive down prices in digital even more than in print. That’s the lesson Google tries to teach media (and government).
* The question about pay walls is whether they are the *best* way to make the *most* money. It’s not a religious matter. It’s a practical question of whether circulation revenue will net more than equivalent advertising, whether one can afford to give up audience and growth, what the costs are to support pay.
OPPORTUNITIES
* Scaling local sales is the key opportunity. I think the answer will lie in productizing services for local merchants (across all these platforms — not just selling them space in a media site but also helping them with Google Place pages and Foursquare and Facebook deals and Twitter specials) and establishing new, independent, entrepreneurial sales forces. The key challenge then will be holding down the cost of sale and production.
* There is huge growth potential in increasing engagement. Facebook gets roughly 30 times the engagement of newspaper sites, Huffington Post’s engagement is also a multiple of newspapers’. If we are truly community services, then we must rethink our relationship with the public, becoming more a platform for our communities, and that will multiply engagement and, with it, audience, traffic, and data. We have not begun to extend and exploit the full potential of the value news organizations can have in relationships with their communities: more people, more value, more engagement equals more value to extract.
* There are still efficiences to be found in infrastructure. If the presses and the distribution and sales arms of papers are not in and of themselves profit centers, they should be jettisoned and their tasks outsourced. If other tasks — including editorial tasks — can be consolidated, they should be.
* Journalists should do only that which adds maximum value. That’s not telling the public what it already knows. It’s not exercising ego. It’s not production. It is reporting, vetting, curating, explaining, organizing, teaching…. Do what you do best and link to the rest.
* There is growth to be found in networks. The more members there are in the ecosystem, the more content there is to link to (without having to go to the cost of creating it), the more opportunities there are for free promotion (links in), the more opportunities there are in aggregated and joint sales. See our work on new business models for news in the local ecosystem at CUNY.
* There are efficiencies to be found in collaboration. Working with the community and with other members of the ecosystem enables a news organization to specialize and increase value and to do more with less.
* There are other revenue streams worth exploring. Local bloggers are making considerable shares of their revenue in events. Newspapers are going into the real estate business and are also selling merchandise.
* We have not begun to explore new definitions of news.
: Note: I rearranged a few of the rules and combined two into one for better organization.
: Was mit Medien translates these rules into German. And translated again.

By J. Jarvis
 

Do what you do best – write, and for other offers – link.

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About Zoran Opalic

Around the World: 1997. NY, USA - Design Workshop at the New York School of Visual Arts // 2003. Hamburg, Germany - Mario Garcia Studio - media design,future of print media.// 2004. Innsbruck, Austria - News Desk, News Desk work shop// 2007. NY, USA - Future of Media and New Technology, New York // 2007. Miami, USA - "React to the news in the short term - in the newsroom work flow". More info: January 1st, 2008: madeIN magazine. Occupation or position held: Publisher/Owner Name and address of employer: Dobro Slovo Brace Domany 8, 10000 Zagreb (Croatia) Type of business or sector Publishing (Magazine) Web January 1st, 2001 - December 31st, 2007 Vecernji list daily. Occupation or position held: Art Director Type of business or sector Publishing, Daily Newspaper. Early Years: I have worked on a different creative media projects — Jutarnji list daily (at the time - 1998. new daily newspapers in Croatia), Globus, Studio, HAK, Nova Vjencanja, Auto Plus...

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