Research

For newspaper stocks, 2012 was a surprisingly good year

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Total revenues are not yet headed in the right direction, but investors still liked what they saw in the newspaper industry last year and bid up share prices accordingly.

Six of eight publicly traded companies showed gains for 2012; four of those were up 30 percent or more. The two companies that lost ground — Washington Post and A.H. Belo — were down just 3.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

Lee showed the biggest percentage gain, up 62.9 percent, followed by McClatchy (36.8 percent), E.W. Scripps (35 percent) and Gannett (34.7 percent).

If you bought a bundle of newspaper stocks at the beginning of last year and sold Monday, you would likely have pocketed a 25 percent gain.

There is an element of paradox to these results. The industry continues to struggle with the basic problem of finding new sources of revenue to make up for continuing declines in print advertising. Print advertising was off by more than $1.1 billion through three quarters, compared to digital ad gains of just $58 million. Circulation and other revenue gains would improve that comparison but still not come close to making up the difference.

So what did investors like about the companies? Here are eight positives:

  1. Digital pay plans, combined with aggressive print price increases, are generating new circulation revenues. More than 400 of 1,350 daily papers now have implemented or plan some version of a digital paywall.
  2. On an operating basis, the great majority of papers are profitable. Only a handful have closed or reduced print frequency.
  3. While some of the companies struggle to make interest payments, pay down debt and fund pension obligations, these and other legacy costs became less threatening in the course of the year.
  4. Companies are showing good results from their investments in digital companies like CareerBuilder. Many have also launched promising digital/social marketing agencies for local businesses.
  5. Those companies with local TV operations (Gannett, Scripps, Washington Post, Journal Communications) had even better-than-expected revenue and profit gains in a banner year for political advertising.
  6. Sunday insert advertising, despite potential future shifts to mobile, held up well as newspapers have also been successful in stabilizing or improving Sunday circulation.
  7. An improving economy should boost continuing problem categories like real estate.
  8. 2012 was a positive year for the broader market with the S & P 500 up 13 percent.

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About Zoran Opalic

Professional in design and publishing industry. Conceptualize and orchestrate designs and redesigns that effectively reinforce and build brand images. Proven ability to drive record-high campaign in increasing publication sales and execute successful product launches...

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